After a volatile March, the final full week of the month (March 24–28, 2025) could serve as a reality check for investors who’ve been riding high on soft-landing hopes and early Fed-pivot dreams.

Now, with key economic data, a critical inflation print, and earnings from retail and housing bellwethers, this week could reveal whether the bull case still has legs—or if the market’s due for another stumble.

Let’s break down what could move the markets—and your portfolio—this week.👇

🔥 All Eyes on PCE: The Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge

📅 Friday, March 29
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, aka the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, will drop this Friday—and it could be a game-changer.

Why it matters:

• January’s PCE came in hotter than expected, rattling markets and raising concerns the Fed might delay rate cuts.
• This time, analysts expect core PCE to cool slightly, but if it misses expectations again, we could see a bond sell-off and renewed equity pressure.

💡 What to Watch:
✔️ Core PCE YoY vs MoM trends
✔️ Reactions in 10-year Treasury yields
✔️ Market-implied odds of a June rate cut (CME FedWatch)

🔍 Investor Insight:
If PCE surprises to the downside, expect tech stocks and rate-sensitive sectors to surge. A hotter print, however, could put financials and energy in focus as value rotation resumes.

🛍️ Consumer Under the Microscope: Confidence and Spending Data

📅 Tuesday: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
📅 Friday: University of Michigan Sentiment Final Print

Consumer sentiment has been sliding despite a strong job market—raising questions about future spending power.

Why it matters:

• Discretionary earnings have been mixed: Home Depot and Target disappointed, while Walmart and Costco held strong.
• A weak print here could foreshadow softness in Q2 retail and travel earnings—especially for mid-tier brands.

💡 Stocks to Watch:

• WMT, COST, AMZN (strong consumer names)
• TGT, BBBYQ, KSS (at-risk retailers)

📈 Housing in Focus: Builder Confidence & Sales Momentum

📅 Tuesday: Case-Shiller Home Price Index
📅 Wednesday: New Home Sales
📅 Thursday: KB Home Earnings (KBH)

The housing market is one of the most interest-rate-sensitive sectors—and the data this week could hint at where homebuilder stocks are headed next.

What we’re seeing:

• Mortgage rates are holding above 6.75%, but limited inventory has propped up home prices.
• Builders like Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI) have defied expectations—but can that strength continue?

💡 Trading Angle:

• Look for upside in builder ETFs (ITB, XHB) if new home sales remain resilient
• Weakness? Watch for pullbacks in home improvement names like HD and LOW

💼 Earnings Spotlight: From Luxury to Discount & Beyond

This week’s earnings reports will give us an updated snapshot of consumer behavior, pricing power, and inventory dynamics across multiple income levels:

🏃‍♂️ Lululemon (LULU) – Reports Tuesday

• Investors want clarity on North America comps and margin pressure
• Watch China growth and e-commerce momentum

🛒 Dollar Tree (DLTR) – Reports Wednesday

• A key gauge of low-end consumer health
• Look for pricing strategy and shrinkage impact

🦴 Chewy (CHWY) – Reports Wednesday

• Is the pet e-commerce slump bottoming out?
• Active customer trends and profitability in focus

🏡 KB Home (KBH) – Reports Thursday

• Strong Q1 housing starts could support optimism
• Watch backlog data and pricing commentary

💡 Sector Takeaway:

Disappointing consumer data + weak guidance = more fuel for the “flight to quality” trade—expect strength in WMT, COST, and discount grocers.

🌍 Global Watch: Inflation & Trade at the Forefront

Beyond the U.S., two global storylines could move markets:

🇬🇧 UK Spring Budget & Inflation

• Chancellor Rachel Reeves may announce spending cuts as the UK battles high debt.
• February CPI expected to tick down to 2.9%—but food inflation is still a problem.

🌐 Boao Forum for Asia (China’s Davos)

• Asia-Pacific leaders will meet to discuss trade, innovation, and AI geopolitics.
• Could offer hints about U.S.-China relations and the semiconductor race.

🔍 Investor Playbook: Positioning for the Week Ahead

✅ Bullish on cooling inflation?

• Look at QQQ, XLK, AAPL, MSFT, SMH
• Consider short-dated call spreads if PCE surprises to the downside

✅ Bearish on consumer confidence?

• Rotate into consumer staples (XLP), gold (GLD), and bond proxies (XLU, VNQ)
• Consider puts on mid-tier retailers like KSS, TGT, or M

✅ Expecting market chop?

• Use straddles on high-volatility names reporting this week (LULU, DLTR)
• Look at covered call income plays on defensives (PG, JNJ)

📢 Final Thoughts: A Sentiment Showdown Is Brewing

After a choppy, Fed-driven first quarter, this week feels like a turning point.

Will consumers continue to hold up under pressure? Will inflation cool fast enough for the Fed to ease off the brakes? And are corporate earnings confirming the soft landing—or questioning it?

📌 Watch inflation.
📌 Watch housing.
📌 Watch the consumer.

This week won’t just move stocks—it could reshape the narrative for Q2 and beyond.

Reminder: Investing involves risk, and markets are unpredictable. Always do your research, follow your strategy, and consider speaking with a licensed financial advisor.