NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s cumulative tariff hikes amount to about 22%, which would be equivalent to the biggest U.S. tax increase since 1968, according to a note from JPMorgan.

The bank has raised its risk of global recession to 60%, up from 40% previously, and said the tariff impact could be “magnified by retaliation, supply chain disruptions, and a sentiment shock.”

The note cautions that “sustained restrictive trade policies and reduced immigration flows may impose lasting supply costs that will lower U.S. growth over the long run.”

JPMorgan adds that these policy actions could evolve in the coming weeks, that “the U.S. and global expansions stand on solid ground and should be able to withstand a modest-sized shock.”

(Reporting by Stephen Culp; Editing by Sandra Maler)